One year later–Has the vision recession ended?

One year ago in an article called “Ending the vision recession“  I wrote:

“The impending economic recession is consuming our attention, time and headlines. What is being ignored is one of its greatest contributing factors—the 7-year “vision recession.” This serious downturn in innovative thinking, strategic planning, forethought and progressive leadership has left this country searching for a direction other than down.”

“…bold new thinking will need to come from economic leadership, both private and public, who must think out-of-the-box in order to address serious issues at hand. Instead of rehashing old policies, they must work together to find new solutions to build a solid future. Only then will we be able to take off the crutches, start rehab, and begin walking confidently again.

Short of that I’m afraid we are in for a serious downturn.”

Well the good news is that the Vision Recession is ending. Bold new thinking arrived January 21, 2009. President Obama has a vision for the future. Which is a very refreshing change. Faced with a daunting economic crisis, the President has already moved boldly on that front. But he is also laying out a bold agenda for tackling health care, education, and renewable energy just to name a few. Clearly he sees how these issues are intertwined with the economy. His health care reform plans will cut costs saving billions of dollars; his renewable energy plans will finally put us on the road to energy independence while improving energy security and creating millions of new jobs.

Unfortunately there are opponents to his vision  (proponents to the status quo; aka “conservatives”).  However still being stuck in a vision recession, the Republicans are offering no plans of their own except for the budget. And while it was thin on specifics, it included one major policy proposal— guess what?—a huge tax cut for the wealthy. Under the Republican plan, the top marginal tax rate would be slashed from 35 to 25 percent, facilitating a dramatic transfer of wealth up the economic scale. Anyone making more than a $100,000 would pay the top rate; those under would pay 10 percent. Other than the tax proposal, the plan was absent any details.

Unfortunately the Republicans failed to read this blog last year when I said: “Instead of rehashing old policies, they must work together to find new solutions to build a solid future.”

Heel Pain—Lessons from a fellow sufferer

“Watch that first step, it’s a doozy,” and if you ever experienced heel pain, you know exactly what that means. That first step out of bed in the morning can be excruciating. The pain may ease after that but usually returns later in the day or evening following increased activity.

For the majority of heel pain sufferers, heel pain is short-lived, commonly lasting a few weeks. But for others, such as me, it can become a frustrating problem lasting years. Many people can experience severe heel pain. Fortunately, while my heel pain lasted for two years, the pain was only mild to moderate.

I’m not going to rehash the causes and symptoms of heel pain here; there are hundreds of web sites providing objective, medically accepted definitions written by orthopedists and podiatrists. I’m no expert, but I am a fellow sufferer. I will share my perspective, experiences and learnings from two years of doctor’s visits, treatments, and research. [Read more →]

Ending the blame game

Amid all the furor over the AIG bonuses, Republicans and Democrats looking who to blame (other than themselves for not having placed strict restrictions on executive compensation with bailout money), one man stepped forward and did the right thing. President Obama stood up and said “the buck stops with me.” He is the man in charge and took the blame. Kudos for the President. Sorry to rehash old anger, but could you possibly imagine former President Bush taking the blame on anything! Remember how he blamed bad intelligence for his decision to invade Iraq. And never even saw any errors when hurricane Katrina swallowed up most of New Orleans.

The President, Secretary Geithner, Director Summers, Chairman Bernake and all the economic staff have the unenviable task of going where no economist has gone before. These are unprecedented times with no easy solution. To say their job requires out of the box thinking is an understatement. There will be errors and costly ones at that.

The overwhelming majority of  Democrats and Republicans in Congress have little understanding of these complex economic issues. And how can they be expected to; few have economic and financial backgrounds.  What Congress can be expected to do is put politics aside, stop looking who to blame with every mistake, and give the economists in charge the tools they need to restore confidence and get this country’s financial system back on track.

Hoping for failure

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey 86 percent hope that Obama’s policies will succeed, with 11 percent rooting for his policies to fail. Twenty-five percent of  those hoping for failure are republicans.

So if I understand this, one in four Republicans hope that more people lose their jobs, that more people lose their homes, and that more small businesses close. Just imagine the Republican lynch mob that would have formed had anyone hoped for failure in Iraq.

In a national crises of this magnitude it is hard to imagine that anyone would hope for failure. Didn’t they get enough of it the past 8 years!

hope-for-failure

The bet that blew up Wall Street

Credit default swaps that created this financial nightmare were illegal until 2000. This past fall (no pun intended) “60 Minutes” explained how that changed:

The Living, Breathing Market

Upon seeing the monster move in the 1931 film classic Frankenstein, Henry Frankenstein screamed, “Look it’s moving, it’s alive, it’s alive.”  Well it seems that many of our financial analysts and experts talk about the stock market in the same way.  [Read more →]

Look for a silver lining…no matter how thin

Perhaps bad news sells better. Perhaps the media has just gotten used to being the bearer of bad news. Perhaps people just focus on the negative. But the media and their “experts”  may have missed a silver lining in the recent job loss report no matter how thin it may be. For the first time since December 2007, the job loss rate decreased for two consecutive months (January and February). This could just may be an aberration or it may also be the beginning of new trend (see chart below). In any event we can use even a nugget of good news and hope.

job-loss-chart

Click on chart to enlarge

Budget Deficits: A Historical Perspective

Republican outrage at the ominous federal budget deficit is a bit perplexing when you examine the U.S. Deficit and Surplus for the past 38 years.

The graph below shows deficits or surplus in billions of dollars as reported by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (www.cbo.gov). The shaded portions represent recessions. The arrows point to the start of a new presidential administration.

According to the Congressional Budget Office data, the largest deficits occurred under Republican administrations. [Read more →]